Post-Pandemics: A Long View Approach

What will be the shape of the post-Pandemic world? 

One serious difficulty for answering such a question is that we are still in the middle of the Pandemic progression.

Lockdowns -total then partial- and emergency economic and social measures -induced coma for entire industries, colossal monetary stimulus and rescue plans for the duration, closed borders, exceptional trade barriers- cannot -and shouldn't be extrapolated.

Emergency, war economies are not valid foundations to build any serious strategy. Just think of September 2001 travel restrictions, the 5 or 6 bubble bursts in the last 20 years. TSA controls in airports didn't change air travel nor the current restrictions will. Duration will not change the fact that there is no alternative to globalization.

Looking at realistic options can be more productive. Let's make a shortlist of what is likely to come after a vaccine and effective treatment is in place -most likely by mid-2021-:

1. An inevitable bounce-back of all major and previously healthy OCDE economies with key differences in shape (V, U, L, W), course (2 or 3 rounds of open/close), and pace (from China's fast to EU and Latam slow)
2. A new "space race" for vaccines and prevention with large expansions of healthcare spending and investment that will relocate government spending and redirect private,
3. Restructuring of global value chains replacing unreliable partners -China beware- that can't control their domestic practices and epidemic issues with others that can. -Opportunities for Southeast Asia, Oceania-
4. The reinvention of business models factoring health and sanitation. 
5. "PTSD"- scared customers changing habits and preferences in critical ways for several industries: (1) travel, tourism & hospitality (2) food (3) entertainment (4) travel (5) leisure (6) workplace (7) education (8) retail (9) real estate -particularly commercial- and (10) urban development (a trend away from high-density, public transportation)
6. Inflationary risks
7. Government debt & public spending

E-performance will likely stay at least 60% of the current level of replacement for knowledge and "white collar" work. E-learning will enter a new level of maturity and the higher education equation will veer away from "campus" and "real estate" towards the lower-price point, learning experience-focused options (global faculty, local application, flexible options)

Like a meteorite falling into Earth altered the climate eons ago, the pandemic will determine winners -the Amazons and Zooms that will thrive after capturing market share-; fast learners -the Ubers able to reinvent and/or exploit new opportunities and "Empresas" -those industries tied to high-maintenance, rigid models and high sunken costs such as tourism, hospitality, travel, and food-.

It's time to look around, and then, to look inside and start thinking anew.