The three stages of populism: institutional degradation, popular dictatorship, imperialist expansion

The term populism (or populist) has become a placeholder for a growing gamut of extreme politics. Let's look at some common components of populism and its stages of evolution.

Definitions 

Merriam-Webster

Definition of populist

 (Entr

y 1 of 2)

1: a member of a political party claiming to represent the common peopleespecially, often capitalized: a member of a U.S. political party formed in 1891 primarily to represent agrarian interests and to advocate the free coinage of silver and government control of monopolies

2: a believer in the rights, wisdom, or virtues of the common people

Brittanica

populism is a political program or movement that champions, or claims to champion, the common person, usually by favorable contrast with a real or perceived elite or establishment.

Populism usually combines elements of the left and the right, opposing large business and financial interests but also frequently being hostile to established liberal, socialist, and labor parties.

The term populism can designate either democratic or authoritarian movements. Populism is typically critical of political representation and anything that mediates the relation between the people and their leader or government. In its most democratic form, populism seeks to defend the interests and maximize the power of ordinary citizens, through reform rather than revolution

Political Science (Francis Fukuyama) 

 

 Common characteristics:

1. "Anti-Elitism": Politics that blame the situation of a group -usually considered a majority of low and middle income "native" working class- on the policies and privileges of "elites" or minorities with un-earned access to wealth, property, power, or education, including foreigners, immigrants and ethnic or religious groups (Jews, Arabs, White, Men, European)  or industries (Finance and banking, oil, Technology) and places (rural, small towns vs, big cities, high-end vs poor neighborhoods and slums)
2. Zero-sum, victimization logic: the "gains" and superior wealth, status, and access to education of "the elites" is taken away from "the people" by an unfair system. 
3. Group and class antagonistic and unresolvable (by institutional and peaceful means) conflict there is no "middle ground" or 'melting pot" but segregation, expulsion, or warfare among classes, ethnic groups, locals vs foreigners.
4. Protectionism, nationalism
5. Secessionism, autonomism, separatism
6. Isolationism, anti-"cosmopolitanism"
7. Xenophobia and "kin-based" trust (and distrust)
8. Extreme conspirative views shared in "communication bubbles" with highly exclusive beliefs and even language and behavioral codes
9. Highly emotional, passion-based motivations (mostly rage)
10. Self-reinforcing, partisan politics
11. Distrust in liberal institutions and rule of law
12. Strong leaders totally empowered by  faithful followers
13. Avoidance of "unpopular" positions. "The people" are always right.
14. Use of direct and circumstantial majorities: rule by the crowd, rally, street, referendums.

Evolution and Stages

1. Institutional degradation

Populist politics and policies erode those institutions designed to check and balance power. They usually start by defacing and storming the Congress -as in the cases of 19717 Russia, 1924 Italy, 1932 Germany, 2003 Venezuela, 2020 US, and 2022 Chile.

Soon Congress's compromise and legislation are replaced by referendum and special executive orders justified by some kind of "national emergency".

      2. Popular Dictatorship

Contrary to conventional wisdom, dictators most often are popularly elected; Mussolini and Hitler reached office by vote and were reelected by 90% of the popular vote. Chavez, Maduro, and Putin stayed decades in power through elections. 

Populist leaders "elect" their voters in exchange for benefits. Patronage, fraud, and opposition illegalization make indefinite reelections safe. Nepotism and dynastic succession secure power beyond life terms.

Common policies:

1. Protectionism
2. Clientelism & patronage
3. Anti-free market capitalism
4. State and crony capitalism

   3. Imperialist Expansion

The constant depletion of wealth and resources to sustain corruption and clientelism requires continuous expansion -"Lebensraum" - Hitler's term for our modern "secure borders". Hitler's annexation of Sudetes and Putin's of Crimea follows that same pattern. Hitler's outright invasion of Poland (with Stalin's help) and Putin's invasion of Ukraine show the same type of escalation.

In its imperial expansionist phase, populist dictatorships provoke territorial wars culminating in global conflicts until their regimes are destroyed with large devastation and loss of lives.