Antebellum II: Is Trumpism the start for a second civil war in the US?

For those societies that have experienced them, the danger of civil wars is not just a hypothetical but a menacing specter of their actual past. Survivors of past civil wars (like most African and European countries and a significant number of Asians) are haunted by their memories. So might be those who read History and books such as Barbara Walter's How Civil Wars Start and How To Prevent Them.

The central argument of How Civil Wars Start and How To Prevent Them is that in a spectrum of political systems that go from total tyranny (-10 on Walter's scale) and stable, strong al well-functioning liberal democracy (+10), Civil Wars tend to happen in those Walter call "emocracies" -somewhere between -5 and +5 of that scale.

In her study of multiple civil war cases -from Ancient times to Kosovo and Rwanda, Iraq or Afghanistan- Walter   found two common elements:

1. Identity politics pit one ethnic/cultural group against another -usually the "son of the land" against immigrants or perceived "elite" groups in power. ("critical race" theory on the Far Left and 'ethnic replacement" on the Far Right mirror the same populist argument to fuel hatred and distrust.
2. Replacement of the current republic: The idea that if the rival win will mean the destruction of the US constitution and descent into some form of dictatorship with massive loss of rights for the losing faction.
3. Formal secession (and ethnic 'cleansing") of the two factions.

The United States under Trump descended from an 8 to a dangerous 5 in the civil war risk "zone" during Trump's first term (so far) to return to 7 after Trump's contentious defeat in 2020. (At least for 25/30%  of hard-core Trumpists and the majority of mainstream republican voters that get their information from Tucker Carlson and other conspiratory hacks) 

Critical Review

Walter's study has many eye-opening points of contact with the current crises in EU  and  US liberal democracies with several important caveats:

1. It's a mid-term scenario for the US. Institutions are still able to contain dictatorial takeovers -as the June 6 hearings and the Republican Party business establishment's reluctance to go with Trump's anti-globalization policies. It would take more than a small mob storming the Capitol to bring down 248-year-old and tested constitutional institutions installing a Putin- Xi or a new version of Jefferson Davis.
2. It downplays and neglects the analysis of the illiberal Left in promoting civil wars  -from BLM, Antifa, and the Quad- to the illiberal 'woke' left identity politics that drive the 2022 Democratic party presided by fading octogenarian leadership (COTUS and POTUS) without moderate and government-tested succession line.
3. It underestimates the historical size and power of the mainstream center in the US that rejects both extremes that demand sensible politics that address inflation growth and security.

The most recent historical precedent in the US would be president Andrew Jackson's failed challenge to COTUS and censure in 1837 President Trump kept a portrait of Jackson in his office.