Monday, June 29, 2020

From Obama to Trump ... and back?: Beyond the Stereotype, the other side of America


For all his evident shortcomings, Trump holds a steady 30-35 % of the US vote. The stereotype of hillbillies, white supremacists, "systemic racists" and "white trash" can't account for more than a marginal part of all that.

Historian Victor Davis Hanson explains  the Trump voter phenomenon -not to be confused with Donald Trump's persona- in a much more nuanced way in his book The Case for Trump 

9 million Obama voters -from 2008 and 2012 elections- that voted for Trump in 2016 and might vote again for him. 
They are (1) small town, rural voters; (2) small business, family-owned and operated, (3) college-educated white and black, (4) latino american, self-employed immigrants.
 They have common immediate requirements such as:
  1. Lower taxes
  2. Keeping their private insurance
  3. Keeping their access to charter schools
  4. Repealing the state tax that kills multi-generational farm families
  5. Rejection of "identity politics" and embracing "Americanism", melting-pot approach to cultural integration (speak English, be self-sufficient, raise traditional families values)
  6. Pragmatic, non-ideological voters: "it's the economy, stupid" criterion first.
Here are some samples from focus groups held by WSJ and ABC news following them in their towns for the past two years:

Texas:

Iowa:


Georgia: Black voters


Obama voters for Trump


A reality check can help assess the "two Americas" -rural and urban- trends and see beyond political stereotypes and pundit talk what the actual voters vote for.

Even if Trump loses in an anti-Trump "tsunami", these voices and voters must be heard and taken into account to understand why.

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