A Global Stroke

COVID 19 pandemic has been compared to many things: previous pandemics, wars, economic recessions. It has indeed similarities with all of them. But Fareed Zakharia identified a critical area in which it is unique.

This epidemic is the first in human history to provoke a simultaneous freeze of all economic and most social activity.

More than a storm, or a hurricane, COVID 19 crisis resembles a stroke.

What a stroke does to the human body, the pandemic does to the social and economic system:

1. Impairs the whole social and economic system
2. Threatens life (making health every business' business)
3. Leaves sequels (V, U or L shape recoveries

We are still nowhere near to understand quite well what point 3 will look like. Will the economy get back on its legs? Will it do it soon? Will it recover completely or just partially?

Like after a stroke, life changes are unavoidable. Rebalancing social and economic life will be complex and require reinvention and repurposing. 

Like after a stroke, it will require for many of us to let go what was sure and safe and face more uncertain and unsettling times. 

For some of us, perhaps most, surely many, it will be life-changing.

We still can think it thr0ugh and come back of it better equipped for the next -which experts consider will likely come- 

In any case, this is not a crisis that can go to waste.

It will force critical changes such as:

1. Glocalization: bringing supply chains closer to customers
2. Nearshoring: opening opportunities for borders to become more integrated in mega regions
3. Replacing China with reliable partners
4. Reinventing industries such as tourism, hospitality, food
5. Precipitating virtual work and e-performance as the new standard for work
6. Addressing slow "U-shaped" recoveries around the world
7. A world of cheap money with all its opportunities and threats
8. Bringing health and healthcare into the economic equation and to the forefront of national priorities
9. Massive demand for retraining of millions of low-income workers in mass-employing industries (food, hospitality, tourism, travel)
10. Developing readiness and resilience for the next pandemic

The "shape" of the recovery will be uneven between US, EU, Asia and the developing countries and it's still too early to know if each economy will get back on its feet, use walkers, wheelchairs or remain bed-ridden for at least 2021.

Time for a visit to The Presidents Club?

The recent funeral of former First Lady and First Mother Barbara Bush was a good opportunity to watch civility in action among the families and clans of all political persuasions in Washington -from former Presidents to their grandchildren-.

One after another, the speeches given by Bush's family  members, friends and political foes rivaled each other in respect, grace and self-deprecating humor. They turned the majestic cathedral and the pain of the circumstance into a celebration of American political traditions at their best.

Those who dress down their own appointees in public and double down on personal attacks  seem not to understand that Americans like candor and kindness and are turned off by bluster and arrogance. For Americans, courage is showing grace under pressure. And the Bush family showed what courage looks like in parting with their beloved matriarch.

Those who don't appreciate our Constitution and its institutions call them instead the "deep state".

If there is a "deep state" in our United States , Fareed Zakaria remarked in an insightful article, that "deep state" is the state of the rule of law. 

That "deep state" also has a long-standing tradition: a "Presidents Club", that was informally instituted by Jefferson and Adams when they asked their predecessors for advice. 

Harry Truman established it formally at Eisenhower's inaugural and Herbert Hoover was its first manager. Richard Nixon presented the Presidents Club with a brownstone building as a permanent lodging for its members, who have been using it regularly for the last 60 years.

There is also a tradition of the annual White House Correspondents Association dinner. Every year,  presidents are "roasted"  in public and forced to show they can take and make jokes about themselves.

A tradition that First Ladies also enjoy publicly lambasting their powerful husbands:

Last year, for the first time in almost 60 years, the sitting president declined to attend the dinner.

Mr. Trump's absence at Mrs. Bush's funeral went beyond a lack of humor.

Declining to show up to Mrs. Bush funeral is a further step downhill -from the shining city of civility on top of it we look up for leadership to the swamps and moats that surround it and Mr. Trump promised to drain-. It is so because it demonstrates Mr Trump fears the embarrassment of facing Mrs. Bush's family without apologizing for his past insults than the embarrassment of sending his wife to do his job.

Harsh words are normal currency during political campaigns, even during the arguments and political fray that come before and after.

Even boxers shake hands after butchering each other 12 rounds on the ring. And show respect once the match is over apologizing for the insults and vulgarities they threw at each other to sell tickets for the show.

The word "President" means among other things, to "preside", to lead by example and set the tone of public discourse and public behavior. This is way below the office that George Washington left warning against extreme partisanship. 

The Trump administration will pass.  

Mr. Trump will then also become a former president. 

He can chose to be a former president like Richard Nixon and fade in disgrace or to adopt the civility of the other four former presidents who showed up at Ms Bush funeral and who sat near his solitary wife.

There's still time to join the Presidents' club, Mr. President.

It would be good not just for you, but for the institution you currently represent and your successors. You might find some experienced friends as well.