Want to see how populism ends?: Look at Latin America

For Americans and Europeans, populism is a new experience. Trump, Putin and the populist - nationalist third parties in France, Spain, Austria and Eastern Europe are a new phenomenon, linked to the classical combination of unemployment and mass immigration that follows global meltdowns.

But for Latin Americans populism is the norm, not the exception. Peronism in Argentina, Lulism in Brazil and Chavism in Venezuela and the so-called "bolivarian socialism" arch have all the populist imprint. Most of them have also a Left-wing tilt (although in Peru Fujimori tilted to the Right and his daughter Keiko seems to be close to become president)

Harvard Chilean economist Jorge Edwards explains the populist phenomenon and its stages in his 2011 book "Left Behind: The False Promises of Populism in Latin America". 

The book follows on the steps of a previous one co-written with late economist Rudiger Dornbusch titled "Macroeconomy of populism in Latin America".

Populists have more in common than what distinguishes them. They reject the "Left" or "Right" classifications and more often than not, make a mix of both. Juan Peron embraced Left-wing terrorists like the Montoneros in his "movement" together with Fascist-leaning unions and Far Right terrorists like the AAA (Anticommunist Argentine Alliance) that mingled with center-left and center-right groups and led the country to economic and social decadence between 1945 and 2015.

The country per capita GDP fell from almost par with the US in 1930 to less than 40 percent by 2004. Seventy years of populism (1945-2015) explain the decadence.

Anti-free trade and anti-"elites" sentiments (being "elites" usually ill-defined as a moniker for opposition) are common as well as the tendency to reject "liberal" institutions such as term limits, division of powers and rule of law (insofar it includes the Leader).

Another common trait in populism is its association not with ideas but with a strongman's personality -from Peron to Chavez to Putin to usual suspects such as Donald J. Trump-.

Another component of populism -especially on the Left- is identity politics and trading votes for "security" -either from immigrants or benefits from the welfare state- and patronage -from Huey Long ("every man a king") to FDR to teachers and public employees unions.

Is Trump a populist?

He has all the makings of one, but the American Constitution was designed by Madison and the Founders with populism ("the tyranny of the majority") in mind. So term limits -after FDR- and court packing -same- in mind. Franklin, Madison, Jefferson and Washington saw the descent of the French Revolution from "democracy" to rule of the mob (Robespierre's Terror reign) to dictatorship and emperor Napoleon I. So they designed a perfect cage to limit absolute power. The last populist challenge was President Jackson -who ended in impeachment and oblivion-. Now many thing comes the next try.

If someone has the Houdini-like abilities to skirt the rules and laws, it is certainly in Donald Trump's career path. But he might opt out of trying too hard: there is no dynastic option in US and dynastic power (Peron-Peron, Kirchner-Kirchner, Castro-Castro, Putin-Mevdevev-Putin, Chavez-Maduro) is a requisite for populism to survive.

Both EU and US liberal order and institutions are now under siege and under test. The future of liberal democracy -as Fareed Zakaria calls it- its at stake.

2018 will be an interesting year for US and EU to watch.