From the moment of his inauguration, President Trump has been under the shadow of impeachment. It's not only that his partisan enemies, the Democrats are sworn to get him -which some of them proclaim publicly, with even a billionaire funding an campaign and websites to do so- but his own declarations and actions in office, such as firing his FBI director, berating his DOJ and tweeting about conspiracies to take him involving the press ("enemies of the people") and his own party.
The country has been living under a Watergate-like suspense for almost a year and it doesn't seem to get any better. Trump has insinuated that he would fire the Special Prosecutor he appointed if he "crosses a line" -namely investigating his financial ties to Russian oligarchs and money laundering- and his cable and Internet supporting press -Fox channel and Breitbart the most prominent- keep attacking Mueller preemptively every day.
What are the chances for that to really happen?
The grounds for impeachment mentioned in the US Constitution are rather vague:
The Constitution sets specific grounds for impeachment. They are “treason, bribery, and other high crimes and misdemeanors.” To be impeached and removed from office, the House and Senate must find that the official committed one of these acts.
The Constitutional Rights Foundation explains in more detail the definition and reach of each one of the three causes for impeachment. It also describes the case of the three US Presidents impeached: Andrew Johnson, Richard Nixon and Bill Clinton.
Even Democrats implied in anti-Trump conspiracy theories like former Clinton's campaign director John Podesta consider impeachment unlikely
The "collusion" argument has been revived by Steve Bannon's recent statements in a coming book about Donald Trump Jr meeting with Russians involved in anti-Clinton campaign, but it still seems at this point a long shot.
A shorter path can be the obvious but curiously underestimated case for money laundering that can be made about Trump's long chain of dubious real estate sales to notorious Russian money-launderers and the string of sold-out empty towers that he has from Punta del Este to Azerbaijan. Steve Bannon has been the latest to suggest that money laundering will be the central path to Trump's indictment or impeachment.
For those who also ponder the impact that a year-long (at least) impeachment like Clinton's in 1998 or Nixon's 2-year Watergate saga would have in US economy and its quasi-secessionist partisan politics, impeachment procedures are not to be treated as sports.
But that precisely the partisan agitation that started with the Tea Party reaction to Obama's presidency and ended electing Trump with a minority government through the Electoral College.
Impeachment is a political procedure, and it hangs in 2018 midterm elections whether the anti-Trump votes (Democrats plus a growing number of Republicans) add up to impeach Trump. The good economy -which started in Obama's years without any merit to either presidency- is Trump's best ally. We may add to that patriotic support if he starts a war of choice with North Korea -although that could work in the opposite direction as well, especially if 2 million Seoul residents are killed by NK's artillery and the country is devastated, requiring extra billion dollars from US-..
The most formidable enemy of Trump in this is... Trump. And also his bizarre inner circle , starting with now despondent and outspoken Steven Bannon.
If history teaches something, it is that the road to impeachment starts with fatal mistakes committed at the sugar-high of triumph and small bunch of tenacious reporters building up the case from the back pages of the news, those that only a few read.
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