Save for a 2019 sudden economic collapse , Donald J. Trump will be re-elected in 2020 for a larger margin than in 2016.
This will be more likely if the roster of 34+ candidates (perhaps even more?) continues to look as of today. It's McGovern 1972 all over again. The likelihood of an Elizabeth Warren , Bernie Sanders , Ocasio Cortes or Kamala Harris Presidency are remote in a general election taking place outside college campuses. They don't even belong in the Biden-Bradley league of primary contenders. They belong in the Green Party's, Ralph Nader's asteroids galaxy of fringe candidates. (footnote: Ocasio Cortez wants to run on a Green New Deal Tax already)
Yet, the Democratic party -the only viable opposition in a bipartisan system- seems as Hell-bent on self-immolation as it was when it elected McGovern in 1972. "Democratic socialist" Democrats should heed Karl Marx's advice that history repeats itself only as a farce.
A more viable challenge would be a more Main street-, Middle America-oriented ticket such as Biden-Oprah or vice versa -attending to the popularity of identity politics among Democrats and Good Old Joe's experience as Obama's VP and perennial presidential hopeful since 1980 (that's 39 years of experience serenading voters)-. They seem to be exploring those waters as well, and they make good pictures together.
The most likely outcome is that either formula of the party of no ideas will be trounced by Trump in a fair economy. More even if the GDP grows north of 3 percent and unemployment continues sinking.
The choice between bigotry and chavism, Russia's crony capitalism or Puerto Rico's "democratic socialism" is quite unappealing.
Lots of independents and Never Trumpers will wait out for 2024.
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