Donald J. Trump is likelier to be a two-term POTUS, in spite of the brutal polarization, the controversial and incoherent policies (deregulation + tariffs?) and the constant zig zagging, managerial chaos that characterize this unusual presidency.
How can it be possible that DJT then can be considered "likelier" to be a two-term POTUS?
How can it be possible that Trump has been a one-term POTUS at all? asks the "Trump-hating" opposition.
Here are some blunt reasons why Trump will likely be reelected, perhaps in a landslide:
- Prioritize middle Americans concerns: jobs now, small businesses, policing, border security, healthcare costs. Trump -an experienced salesman and media mogul- sensed earlier than others (around 2011) that both Democrats and Republicans forgot those fundamentals and where woefully out of touch with the growing demand from voters across the spectrum and the country.
- PC-speech and elite-fatigue: Americans are sick and tired of Liberal platitudes and language-policing censorship. Many voters in critical Mid-America states felt patronized and looked down by Obama's professorial condescension and Hillary's aggressive put-downs (her ill-fated "deplorables" probably sealed her fate). Most Americans think that "freedom of speech" includes their own speech and resent being force-fed with "newspeak" by fringe progressivism. They (some secretly) appreciated Trump's dismissal of political correctness and even his aggressive ti-for-tat.
- Right economic moves and measures: tax cuts, derregulation, pro-business message have created and sustained a bull market and ratcheted up growth from 2 to 4 percent GDP-wise, from 120.000 to 330,000 monthly jobs, raising salaries for the first time in a decade, while lowering unemployment and keeping inflation below 2 percent.
- Stop apologizing - go on the offensive Americans saw the contempt and disrespect shown to the politeness and sensibility of Obama's Cairo speech and with Chavez at OAS. They didn't like to see their President lectured by a bigoted demagogue like Chavez or catering to PLO and Hamas Far Left, anti-American supporters in UN and EU. Trump offered no apologies, even laughed at UN's reaction to his absurd self-vindicating claims. The message was clear: I don't need your Nobel Peace Prize. US doesn't accept EU or UN tutelage on moral or ideological grounds, much less foreign policy.
- Use bargaining power Trump's disrespect for what he considered bad deals for US opened a new round of bargaining, forcing those who took US for granted to took it seriously and make concessions. Whether this ends in successes or failures, it will be seen on a case-by-case basis. Americans love renegotiating mortgages, salaries, prices, loans, and loved the attitude.
- Stick and carrot TR used this policy effectively in the 1910s. "Speak softly and carry a big stick" worked and works with thugs and dictators such as those currently in power in Middle East, Africa, Asia and Latin America. They respect power and brute force, neither care nor understand principle (what means principle for China, Russia, Iran or Venezuela leaders? What for PLO, Hamas, and the larger Middle East? They certainly respect Tomahawks, 300-ship US Navy and the promise of bombing them to the ashes. More than everything, they respond to fear and unpredictable, credible menaces from what is by far the most powerful economy and military on Earth. They depend on US economic and military might far more than the other way around. Trump carried his stick with gusto and credibility, without "red lines". So far it has worked.
Having said all this, Trump still is all the other things: a dangerous opportunist, a Nixonian-minded politician, a one-man, "Wizzard of Oz" real estate speculator and also someone with a probably criminal track record of money laundering as the basis for his business record.
The "king of default" motto is also a worrying sign. His bankruptcies another. The "wrecking ball" POTUS is likely to bring the roof over his head (and ours) down. Those who lived through Latin American demagogues like Peron or Menem or Italy's Berlusconi know very well what kind of disaster can someone like them bring given free reign of the POTUS position.
That's why Madison's checks and balances are so fundamental.
But without understanding what Trump got right, there is no better alternative for American voters to support.
You cannot beat somebody with nobody. You cannot beat bad ideas with no ideas.
Hating Trump is not a policy. It's exactly the way to campaign for him -showing there is no alternative-. "Democratic socialism" , "sanctuary cities", war on police, free immigration are perfect formulas to re-elect Trump. Or to get elected in Puerto Rico.
And perhaps the next president after his two terms as well.
Hating Trump is not a policy. It's exactly the way to campaign for him -showing there is no alternative-. "Democratic socialism" , "sanctuary cities", war on police, free immigration are perfect formulas to re-elect Trump. Or to get elected in Puerto Rico.
And perhaps the next president after his two terms as well.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDelete