The terminal crisis of Venezuela's populist experiment proves the Cold War isn't over. It has just changed names and geopolitical scenarios.
Between 1945 and 1989, the Iron Wall ran from the Baltic to the Adriatic, dividing free Western Europe and Communist-occupied Eastern Europe. But the fall of the USSR and the Berlin Wall didn't end the Cold War. It only ended what we could call now Cold War I.
Soon after, the USSR's vassal states and sponsored agents -from formal communist parties to diverse fronts such as "human rights" , "anti-globalization" groups and NGOs- regrouped into new alliances in different regions of the world around petrol-rich sponsor states.
Between 1999 and perhaps 2019, these countries built a new wall, which we could call the Banana Wall dividing the Americas, with rich-oil Venezuela playing the regional role of a Soviet Union and proclaiming the "Socialism of the 21st Century". Economist long time Latin American editor Michael Reid explained the rise of the new Wall in its book "Forgotten Continent: The Battle for Latin America's Soul"
The impending fall of the Venezuelan "chavista" regime shows how that new map (see above) is organized. Red for Venezuela's allies (Russia, China, Middle East, Bolivia, Cuba), blue for the free world. Here's how the world looks during this Cold War II:
Between 1945 and 1989, the Iron Wall ran from the Baltic to the Adriatic, dividing free Western Europe and Communist-occupied Eastern Europe. But the fall of the USSR and the Berlin Wall didn't end the Cold War. It only ended what we could call now Cold War I.
Soon after, the USSR's vassal states and sponsored agents -from formal communist parties to diverse fronts such as "human rights" , "anti-globalization" groups and NGOs- regrouped into new alliances in different regions of the world around petrol-rich sponsor states.
Between 1999 and perhaps 2019, these countries built a new wall, which we could call the Banana Wall dividing the Americas, with rich-oil Venezuela playing the regional role of a Soviet Union and proclaiming the "Socialism of the 21st Century". Economist long time Latin American editor Michael Reid explained the rise of the new Wall in its book "Forgotten Continent: The Battle for Latin America's Soul"
The impending fall of the Venezuelan "chavista" regime shows how that new map (see above) is organized. Red for Venezuela's allies (Russia, China, Middle East, Bolivia, Cuba), blue for the free world. Here's how the world looks during this Cold War II:
- Latin America: The self-denominated "Bolivarian Socialism" or "Socialism of the 21st" inspired -and commanded- by Cuban Castroist system, took over Venezuela's vast oil reserves and went on to finance satellite regimes in Nicaragua, Honduras, Equator, Bolivia and Argentina. With Castro's and Chavez's deaths and the typical self-destruction provoked by the state-controlled economy, Venezuela is the last and most critical piece to implode. This might spawn positive repercussions in all the region, such as an economic recovery and a reduction of the mass migration and the consequent burden of humanitarian crises in neighboring countries. In the long run, if Venezuela recovers, it could repatriate its most talented people, who where the first to emigrate to US, Mexico, Brazil and Argentina. If Brazil and Argentina (Mexico seems to be going in the opposite direction for now) recover as well, part of the Venezuelan diaspora will stay and contribute to that as well.
- Middle East's three major forms of authoritarian regimes: (1) Former pro-Soviet dictatorships like Iraq, Syria and Lybia supported by Putin's Russia ; (2) Iran's theocracy spreads its influence over Iraq, Palestine and Syria as well, often in alliance with Russia and (3) Stateless terrorism: ISIS and Al-Qaeda displaced Hezbollah and PLO , branching out Boko Haram in Sub-Saharan Africa.
- Eastern Europe (former Soviet Bloc): Classic communism has turned into populist nationalism and state-ran, crony capitalistic, xenophobic dictatorships seizing power by elections in Poland and Hungary. Putin's Russia took over the role of the USSR as military power seizing control of the region Putin considers its backyard. The military invasion of Crimea was the parting shot of the new oil-powered Russian dictatorship.
- Far East: Post-Mao China evolved towards a "Market-Communism" system -to use Deng Xiaoping's labeling- and spread aggressively through and undeclared "trade invasion" to take over Africa, Latin America from US sphere and control their natural resources. The "trade invasion" provoked a strong protectionist backlash in Western Europe and US. Obama's appeasement policy turned into a "trade Cold War" with Trump's election.
The complacent and lethargic EU had a harsh wake-up call with Brexit and -like the rest of the West- has now to face that the Cold War isn't over, just rearranged.
The faster the West begins to face the realities of a Cold War II, the better the outcomes will be. Populism menaces as much liberal democracies as Communism and Fascism did during the previous Cold War I. Like then, Cold War II will channel the confrontation by non-military means, such as populist propaganda (anti-elite discourse, anti-immigration, anti-free trade) , co-opting democratic institutions through "direct democracy" subterfuges such as referendums like Brexit, Catalan independence or others over walls or annexations.
The map of those countries that support Venezuela's dictatorship and those who support its interim democratic government draws the lines of this brave new world we have to deal with.
As a 1930s folk American saying goes: "denial is not a river in Egypt". It is more like a Rubicon that the free World has to cross if it wants to remain free.
Where does the United States stand? Under Trump's presidency, that's everybody's guess, but unlike Latin America, Eastern Europe and Asia, US has term and constitutional limits that may prevent it from veering away from its institutions and rule of law.
Beyond Trump -who has supported Russia but confronted Venezuela and China- the United States will continue to lead this Cold War II world. The fall of Venezuela's dictatorship will certainly debilitate the "Banana Curtain" that divided Latin America for two decades already, but "sleeping cells" of left and right-wing populism will remain in each country, waiting for the next economic downturn to take over. Such is the case of Argentina's peronism and kirchnerism, Brazil's PT now in opposition.
With Mexico going towards left-wing populism and US'a foreign policy in the hands of nationalistic hawks, Cold War II is far from over.
Where does the United States stand? Under Trump's presidency, that's everybody's guess, but unlike Latin America, Eastern Europe and Asia, US has term and constitutional limits that may prevent it from veering away from its institutions and rule of law.
Beyond Trump -who has supported Russia but confronted Venezuela and China- the United States will continue to lead this Cold War II world. The fall of Venezuela's dictatorship will certainly debilitate the "Banana Curtain" that divided Latin America for two decades already, but "sleeping cells" of left and right-wing populism will remain in each country, waiting for the next economic downturn to take over. Such is the case of Argentina's peronism and kirchnerism, Brazil's PT now in opposition.
With Mexico going towards left-wing populism and US'a foreign policy in the hands of nationalistic hawks, Cold War II is far from over.
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