Saturday, June 21, 2025

Moebius: The Shape of Social Failure Cycles The Case of Argentina and the Risk for the United States


By Mariano Bernardez

“The Enlightenment is working.”
— Steven Pinker, Enlightenment Now


I. Introduction: Progress as a Straight Path of Reason

Human progress has not been linear, but it has always moved forward when grounded in freedom: freedom to think, learn, and build. Every time these freedoms have been replaced by closed systems — whether ideological, tribal, or authoritarian — the result has been stagnation or conflict.

Authors such as Steven Pinker (Enlightenment Now, The Better Angels of Our Nature), Joel Mokyr (A Culture of Growth), and Angus Maddison (OECD historical data) have shown that the true engine of development is the free accumulation of knowledge, not redistribution or grievance politics.

Yet some societies repeat their failures cyclically. Instead of advancing, they spin in circles, trapped in a Moebius strip: a surface that appears to move but always returns to the same point. Argentina has long been caught in such a cycle. Alarmingly, the United States now seems at risk of entering its own ideological Moebius loop.


II. Moebius: The Geometry of Stagnation

The Moebius strip symbolizes systems that appear to move but never progress. In politics, it reflects tribal polarization that replaces learning with repetition.

This occurs when ideologies frame history as a zero-sum conflict. From Marxist dialectics to Hegelian-Nietzschean narratives of power and identity, these frameworks deny the possibility of rational progress and replace individual agency with collective grievance.

Rather than create value through innovation, such systems encourage the redistribution of existing wealth via political conflict.


III. Argentina: Two Centuries of Moebius

Since 1810, Argentina has cycled through recurring ideological and cultural wars:

  • Unitarians vs. Federalists (1810–1853): Civil wars between enlightened modernizers and authoritarian caudillos paralyzed the country until the 1853 Constitution.

  • Peronists vs. Anti-Peronists (1945–1983): A cultural and institutional war between populism and republicanism led to dictatorship, terrorism, and political exile.

  • Kirchnerists vs. Anti-Kirchnerists (2003–2025): Tribalism returned with a new face: narrative replaced facts, militancy replaced institutions, and the economy was managed as a spoils system.

Progress in Argentina only occurred when these cycles were broken.


IV. The Virtuous Interlude: 1853–1930

Argentina's only sustained era of growth was from 1853 to 1930:

  • According to Angus Maddison, per capita GDP rose from USD 1,311 (1990 PPP) in 1870 to USD 3,797 by 1913, surpassing Italy and approaching Germany.

  • Orlando Ferreres shows an average growth rate of 3.5% per year, alongside booming infrastructure, literacy, and exports.

This was possible because Argentina embraced modern institutions, openness, and forward-looking policies — escaping the Moebius loop, if only briefly.


V. United States: Entering Its Own Moebius?

America has long been the exception — a society founded on Enlightenment principles, meritocracy, and freedom. But today, two polarized forces —MAGA nationalism and woke identitarianism— threaten to turn it into another Argentina.


1. MAGA: The Myth of a Lost Greatness

MAGA ideology is rooted in the idea of restoring a mythical past — ignoring the very diversity and innovation that made America great. It includes:

  • Economic isolationism, echoing 1930s protectionism.

  • Idealization of white, rural, Christian America, excluding the contributions of immigrants and minorities.

  • Attacks on press, institutions, and judicial independence, eroding democratic norms.

MAGA evokes the antebellum South, where privilege resisted industrial and social modernization.


2. Wokism: Grievance as Identity

On the other extreme, woke progressivism frames U.S. history as a chain of oppression, proposing:

  • Cancel culture and historical revisionism as tools of justice.

  • Replacing universal citizenship with tribal entitlements.

  • Redefining justice as reparative symbolism instead of equal opportunity.

This mirrors Mao’s Cultural Revolution, where ideology erased nuance and punished dissent.


3. A New Cultural Civil War?

Both MAGA and woke extremes:

  • Reject reasoned debate.

  • Replace merit with identity.

  • Eliminate shared futures in favor of historical blame.

As Lincoln warned, “A house divided against itself cannot stand.”


4. Reagan’s Principle: Forward, Not Back

In 1981, Ronald Reagan offered a unifying vision:

“It doesn't matter where we came from. What matters is where we're going. If we agree on the destination, the differences become irrelevant.”

This is the antidote to the Moebius trap: not ideological consensus, but a shared commitment to the future.


Conclusion: Breaking the Moebius Cycle

Our core challenge is not right vs. left, but past vs. future.

Societies that learn and build escape the cycle. Those that replay tribal conflicts remain trapped. Argentina shows the cost of repetition. The United States still has time to choose progress.


References

  • Maddison, A. (2007). The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective. OECD

  • Mokyr, J. (2016). A Culture of Growth: The Origins of the Modern Economy. Princeton University Press

  • Pinker, S. (2011). The Better Angels of Our Nature. Viking

  • Pinker, S. (2018). Enlightenment Now. Viking

  • Ferreres, O. (2010). Dos siglos de economía argentina: 1810–2010. El Ateneo

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