President Trump's tariffs' threat worked, forcing Mexico to commit to serious and accountable actions to stop and stem illegal immigration.
The result was a US-Mexico Joint Declaration, which summarizes Mexico's acceptance to comply with US's demands:
The result was a US-Mexico Joint Declaration, which summarizes Mexico's acceptance to comply with US's demands:
“those crossing the U.S. Southern Border to seek asylum will be rapidly returned to Mexico where they may await the adjudication of their asylum claims.In response, Mexico will authorize the entrance of all of those individuals for humanitarian reasons, in compliance with its international obligations, while they await the adjudication of their asylum claims. Mexico will also offer jobs, healthcare and education according to its principles.The United States commits to work to accelerate the adjudication of asylum claims and to conclude removal proceedings as expeditiously as possible.”
Looking from a long view perspective, this success might indicate that Theodore Roosevelt (TR) policies of "carry a long stick and a big smile" work if applied in such order -first show the stick or give a first hit with it, then smile, not the other way around- precisely because of the credibility generated by Trump's unpredictable, belligerent and heavy-handed approach to long-time deadbeats like Mexico and China.
The art of the Mexico deal is in understanding that AMLO -as President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is known- is a populist that uses far Left rhetoric but has a long track record of cutting pragmatic deals with "foes" that generate taxes, investment or exports revenue. After a few rounds of posturing, AMLO sent a commission to capitulate in Washington, quite much like Generalissimo Santa Ana did 150 years ago.
Obama's and Bush's rational diplomacy were seen as signs of weakness and opportunities for cheating and taking advantage of a naive or self-doubting neighbor.
At the root of the problem lay the Schengen-inspired migratory policies that both Republicans and Democrats have kept since Reagan's 1986 Amnesty in the hope that the problem would correct itself. Those policies, designed to capture (and or manufacture) Hispanic votes metastasized even further in the form of "sanctuary cities" that openly ban migratory laws' enforcement in exchange for a permanent majority-making influx of voting- and welfare net- enabled constituency.
The proponents of such policies have suffered a major blow that will reverberate in the coming 2020 elections against their candidates. Instead of choosing to bargain with the wall for accommodation, they preferred to sustain a ridiculous denial of the chaos in the border that self-fed into a Tsunami of asylum seekers, scaring a sizable majority in all border states.
Trump and his foreign policy instincts have a point: raw power seems to be more effective than nice words with authoritarian governments with a track record of serial cheating.
Nice words and noble self-criticism -such as Obama's Cairo speech- seem only to encourage more abuse by ceding the moral ground to declared enemies of most of what US stands for: free trade, free markets, freedom of the press, rule of law.
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