Texas and California are often used as belt-weathers to compare GOP and Democratic policies in practice, as The Economist recently did in a special report.
The "Blue-Red" stereotype of the two states is both historically and demographically misleading, a tired "tale of two countries" used for partisan polarization.
From 1848 up to 1952, Texas voted Democratic. Texas voted for JFK and Lyndon Johnson during the 1960s and up to 1991 elected a Democratic, pro-choice woman like Ann Richards as governor.
Since 1936, California showed a voting history characterized by strong swings between short Blue dominance (1936-1948) and much longer Red supremacy (1952-1960, 1968-1988) periods, in which it elected Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan and Arnold Schwarzenegger as Republican governors.
Both states are testing grounds for Republican and Democratic models of economic and social governance and beyond ups and downs, both show long-term success.
Both states have economic entrepreneurial powerhouses in the Bay Area and Silicon Valley and the Texas Triangle, respectively.
Both states have shown the ability to learn from mistakes and change course, often guided by the least-expected. Under the once ultra-liberal Jerry Brown, California straightened its finances, controlled its deficit and turned around its economy.
Partisan views usually describe the contrast in tone-deaf, "B&W", "Hell vs Heaven" terms. Pundits such as libertarian Stossel
and progressive Robert Reich
duel like real estate agents over a candid customer.
Reality is more complex and more interesting.
The Economist report suggests looking at Texas as a younger version of California, more free enterprise, low-tax like California was at the beginning of the 20th century, now trending towards an expansion of its welfare state network. That trend might be based on two key factors: increased affluence and Californian immigrants.
Voting trends seem to support this hypothesis, showing that Democrats have been making inroads in recent Texan elections.
Conversely, Californians have turned to Republican policies of austerity to stop losing business and jobs to lower taxed neighboring states (Texas first among them) and to shore up their bankrupt pension system.
If something can be learned from Texas and California's swinging politics is that there is no "Red or Blue" model but rather policies that work, such as Texas' low taxation, business-friendly regulation or California's long-term investment in top universities, research and talent-friendly, internationally-minded ecosystems.
From a long view perspective, demographics will keep changing with success and growth. dictating long term social changes that politicians will follow rather than lead, as they always do.
Looking at Californians migrating to Texas as a signal of victory for Republican views is most likely wishful thinking.
Californians -quite like Europeans or Latin Americans- will happily take lower taxes and friendlier regulation without leaving behind their like for the kind of welfare benefits they grew accustomed.
The electoral trend towards Democrats is a good indicator of it. Partisan Republicans might cheer the Californian exodus at their own peril. For them, it has all the makings of a Pyrrhic victory. The Hill explains why:
Politics are a lagging, not a leading indicator.
Policies are just the opposite.
Conversely, Californians have turned to Republican policies of austerity to stop losing business and jobs to lower taxed neighboring states (Texas first among them) and to shore up their bankrupt pension system.
If something can be learned from Texas and California's swinging politics is that there is no "Red or Blue" model but rather policies that work, such as Texas' low taxation, business-friendly regulation or California's long-term investment in top universities, research and talent-friendly, internationally-minded ecosystems.
From a long view perspective, demographics will keep changing with success and growth. dictating long term social changes that politicians will follow rather than lead, as they always do.
Looking at Californians migrating to Texas as a signal of victory for Republican views is most likely wishful thinking.
Californians -quite like Europeans or Latin Americans- will happily take lower taxes and friendlier regulation without leaving behind their like for the kind of welfare benefits they grew accustomed.
The electoral trend towards Democrats is a good indicator of it. Partisan Republicans might cheer the Californian exodus at their own peril. For them, it has all the makings of a Pyrrhic victory. The Hill explains why:
"Hundreds of thousands of new residents are moving into Texas every year, choosing to live in fast-growing cities and suburbs around the state’s four largest metropolitan areas. Six of the nation’s 10 fastest-growing counties are in Texas. About one in every 10 Texas residents did not live in the state when Sen. Ted Cruz (R) first won his seat six years ago.
“We have a lot of new voters who have held up their hands. There’s thousands of new voters moving to Texas every week,” said Chris Homan, a veteran Texas Republican strategist.
Those new residents are changing the partisan hue of once-reliably Republican suburbs and fueling a massive surge in new voters in solidly Democratic urban cores that even Republicans acknowledge will put the state’s massive haul of electoral votes in play for the first time in a generation."
Politics are a lagging, not a leading indicator.
Policies are just the opposite.
In any case, the Texas-California rival models are a good lab for testing ideas for the future of the country.
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