The Art of the Bluff: Iran loses its hand badly

Bluffing can be a good thing: Iran's overshot fires back, Trump's punt gives US the upper hand 

Moving in a new twist in the bargaining process with Iran, Trump refused for the second time the Iranian bait and gambit by not taking immediate military action.

He also distanced from the Iranian "hawks" by firing John Bolton and distancing from PM Netanyahu. 

In doing so, Trump is trying to find his own path between EU's and Obama's capitulation to Iranian nuclear blackmail and his own hard-right, "neocons" hawks. 

The tactic seems to be working in giving Trump more bargaining power with both sides while keeping his base for the upcoming elections.

Meanwhile, back in Iran the continued sanctions seem to be working by exacerbating internal pressure from the powerful Bazaar on the Iranian dictatorship

while keeping pressure on moderates to come to the bargaining table with concrete and verifiable commitments. By not taking the military option after the drone attacks on Saudi Arabia, Trump has left the Iranians the impopular decision of doubling down with the attacks, which would force the EU to support joint and protective military measures on its own budget.

Trump -who makes no illusions about being popular amongst EU's embattled liberal leaders- is trying to achieve through pressure what Bush 41 achieved by his long-time connections. 

Once again, anti-Trumpism looks disoriented with POTUS 45's moves. They cannot certainly claim that the president is war-mongering like they did with Bush 43 nor criticize him for not attacking Iran -this would force them to align with Israel, something neither EU nor US liberals can do without paying a heavy price with their new electoral base, increasingly formed by anti-Israel, Middle East immigrants.

Trump had his own initiative through his son-in-law Jared stalled a year ago. Although it failed, the plan reflects a more pragmatic approach than the Israeli far right has been proposing.