The Wizzard of Oz Presidency? II: A Stable Genius with No Clothes and No Friends

The Trump's presidency is trying hard to make sense of the chaotic twists and turns of its foreign policy.

The unexpected and hurried withdrawal from Syria has been exposed as mostly unplanned, incoherent and self-defeating. Key allies such as Turkey, NATO and the kurds have been left in chaos, set against each other and deeply upset and deeply distrustful of Donald J. Trump and his emasculated Department of State and intelligence officials.

Returns are clearly negative and start mounting to levels that made the most sycophantic loyalists such as Fox News anchors, Senate Leader Mitch McConnell and golf buddy Lindsay Graham break files and distance from the self-proclaimed "very stable genius" tweeting policy 180s at odd hours from the White House.

The difference between genius and foolishness has always been hard to judge in politics, but at this point President Trump seems lost in a fog of war of his own making,  a dangerous mix of reality show-like daily spats and consequential, long-term 180 degrees turns and counter-turns. 

Foreign policy is way too complex to trust a single individual -even a very stable genius- bouts of intuition. Particularly when such intuitive impulses come in 30 minute-sequences. 

Trump's language has also deteriorated dangerously from his usual one-liners to bursts of fury and personal aggression towards formidable foes -such as House Speaker Pelosi-, heads of state -such as the President of Italy-, his own appointees -from DOJs to DoDs, to DoEs to Fed Chairs- and critical allies such as the President of Turkey, EU, NATO, Canada, G7 and G20.

Those who want to keep hope and positive expectations towards the atypical president they voted in office have an increasingly hard time. 

Those looking for a method in the madness, a strategy behind stratagems are finding more the latter than the former. And stratagems that might work in closing a one-time, zero-sum real estate deal, a TV contract or handling a poker hand are a poor substitute for strategy.

Those who try to find pragmatism as a positive in Trump's over-simplistic and changing choices instead of poll-driven domestic populism are likely deluding themselves.

Those who asked for a wrecking ball to wipe out US government have certainly gotten what they wished for. Only that the wrecking ball operator seems increasingly erratic and unable to distinguish between his circunstancial political enemies and the columns that support vital institutions.

Trump's leadership style is becoming worryingly similar to that he showed in his reality show "The Apprentice".

Only that this time he's also one of them.

The Art of the Bluff: Iran loses its hand badly

Bluffing can be a good thing: Iran's overshot fires back, Trump's punt gives US the upper hand 

Moving in a new twist in the bargaining process with Iran, Trump refused for the second time the Iranian bait and gambit by not taking immediate military action.

He also distanced from the Iranian "hawks" by firing John Bolton and distancing from PM Netanyahu. 

In doing so, Trump is trying to find his own path between EU's and Obama's capitulation to Iranian nuclear blackmail and his own hard-right, "neocons" hawks. 

The tactic seems to be working in giving Trump more bargaining power with both sides while keeping his base for the upcoming elections.

Meanwhile, back in Iran the continued sanctions seem to be working by exacerbating internal pressure from the powerful Bazaar on the Iranian dictatorship

while keeping pressure on moderates to come to the bargaining table with concrete and verifiable commitments. By not taking the military option after the drone attacks on Saudi Arabia, Trump has left the Iranians the impopular decision of doubling down with the attacks, which would force the EU to support joint and protective military measures on its own budget.

Trump -who makes no illusions about being popular amongst EU's embattled liberal leaders- is trying to achieve through pressure what Bush 41 achieved by his long-time connections. 

Once again, anti-Trumpism looks disoriented with POTUS 45's moves. They cannot certainly claim that the president is war-mongering like they did with Bush 43 nor criticize him for not attacking Iran -this would force them to align with Israel, something neither EU nor US liberals can do without paying a heavy price with their new electoral base, increasingly formed by anti-Israel, Middle East immigrants.

Trump had his own initiative through his son-in-law Jared stalled a year ago. Although it failed, the plan reflects a more pragmatic approach than the Israeli far right has been proposing.