A Global Stroke

COVID 19 pandemic has been compared to many things: previous pandemics, wars, economic recessions. It has indeed similarities with all of them. But Fareed Zakharia identified a critical area in which it is unique.

This epidemic is the first in human history to provoke a simultaneous freeze of all economic and most social activity.

More than a storm, or a hurricane, COVID 19 crisis resembles a stroke.

What a stroke does to the human body, the pandemic does to the social and economic system:

1. Impairs the whole social and economic system
2. Threatens life (making health every business' business)
3. Leaves sequels (V, U or L shape recoveries

We are still nowhere near to understand quite well what point 3 will look like. Will the economy get back on its legs? Will it do it soon? Will it recover completely or just partially?

Like after a stroke, life changes are unavoidable. Rebalancing social and economic life will be complex and require reinvention and repurposing. 

Like after a stroke, it will require for many of us to let go what was sure and safe and face more uncertain and unsettling times. 

For some of us, perhaps most, surely many, it will be life-changing.

We still can think it thr0ugh and come back of it better equipped for the next -which experts consider will likely come- 

In any case, this is not a crisis that can go to waste.

It will force critical changes such as:

1. Glocalization: bringing supply chains closer to customers
2. Nearshoring: opening opportunities for borders to become more integrated in mega regions
3. Replacing China with reliable partners
4. Reinventing industries such as tourism, hospitality, food
5. Precipitating virtual work and e-performance as the new standard for work
6. Addressing slow "U-shaped" recoveries around the world
7. A world of cheap money with all its opportunities and threats
8. Bringing health and healthcare into the economic equation and to the forefront of national priorities
9. Massive demand for retraining of millions of low-income workers in mass-employing industries (food, hospitality, tourism, travel)
10. Developing readiness and resilience for the next pandemic

The "shape" of the recovery will be uneven between US, EU, Asia and the developing countries and it's still too early to know if each economy will get back on its feet, use walkers, wheelchairs or remain bed-ridden for at least 2021.

Pandemic Crisis: It's SARS 2002 all over again - But worse. Things to do and not to do about it

The risk of a global pandemic the size of the 1918 Spanish Flu or the 16th hundreds Black Death has been there is plain sight since SARS outbreak in 2002.

Once controlled, only specialists and dedicated philanthropists like Bill Gates kept warning about a danger that was manifold more likely than global warming or another recession. Even more likely than a bear market.

Here are some readings for those who want to know more about 

1. A brief recent  history of Virus & Plagues
2. and what to do about it.

And here is more Bill Gates ideas about what to do with the coronavirus Second Coming.

As for now, two equally myopic approaches engage in political warfare: those who want to quarantine everyone until the vaccine is ready and those who want to start the Easter Parade and die for the economy.

Those are the options for those who drive into cul-de-sacs. There is no way to solve the problem as a "zero-sum" game. 

Those who want to channel their energy more productively (and sanely) may just turn off the networks engaged in political football look for fresher horizons and saner ways to endure what seems to be a long and bumpy way ahead.

Most are already turning to Zoom or WhatsApp their way to stay in touch with family, friends and some sort of businesses.  That's a good beginning.

Take a look for that at our coming www.ispiglobal.org events just divided into two areas:

1. How to stay in touch and sane
2. How to make a living while this lasts

Facing the Virus Flood, some are setting up a new network of virtual rafts rather than the Biblical Arch.

This author is one of them and will stay in touch.