Immigration's long view: welfare state or open borders? you can't have both.

In a first, unforced strategic error, the Biden administration reversed critical policies instituted by the Trump Administration to control immigrants' flow.  The reversal not only was hurried but plagued with ambiguous messages such as "don't come... now".

The response was a colossal and predictable surge:

"U.S. Border Patrol agents made about 97,000 arrests of migrants crossing the border illegally in February, the highest monthly total since 2019 when there was also a surge in U.S.-bound migration. Record numbers of unaccompanied minors crossing the border have posed the greatest problem for U.S. immigration authorities."

Biden was forced to use a Trump-era COVID resolution to justify sending back thousands of unaccompanied minors illegally smuggled from Central America to the border and put VP Kamala Harris in charge of negotiating a temporary halt with Mexico and Central American governments.

Milton Friedman explained almost 50 years ago the fundamentals to think about immigration policies between underdeveloped neighbors and a high-income society with a large welfare state like the US.:

The current crisis proves Friedman right by way of the absurd. Opening the border to poorly defined "asylum-seekers" is the equivalent of inviting millions across the border to come to a Black Eye Friday sale.

The long view of the problem is clear: immigration can be managed much better only through an internal agreement between special interests represented by both Democrats and Republicans. 

Extremist, simplistic fixes such as "building the wall" or "humanitarian asylum" not only don't solve the problem but exacerbate it. 

Border control -as Biden has learned the hard way- is a first priority and necessity and top-rated demand in the border states exposed to uncontrolled inflows of migration managed and promoted by a mix of human traffickers, failed states, and political extremists.

For all his harmful and insulting rhetoric, Trump addressed that claim. Biden's reversal shows that moderates understand reality much better than extremists on both ends of the political spectrum. Immigration policy is neither an academic debate nor a campaign bumper sticker.

The welfare state party can do better to serve it by keeping control of the border before negotiating a true migratory reform that serves and prioritizes US stakeholders.