What is the matter with America's politics?

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The ascent and candidacy of J.D. Vance as a Vice Presidential candidate alongside Donald Trump in 2024 can be seen as a symbolic and strategic move that underscores a broader political and cultural shift in the United States. This shift involves a significant portion of American voters, particularly in rural and small-town areas, moving away from what they perceive as the cosmopolitan, globalist progressivism of major urban centers towards a more nationalist, conservative stance that emphasizes anti-immigration policies and other culturally conservative values.

Vance's turn from never-Trumper to Trump extreme support (including his disproved claim of 2020 election fraud) is quite apparently a political posturing shift to gain Trump's favor (or succumb to his attraction). Still, the main reason Trump chose his 39-year-old political greenhorn over the roster of GOP longtimers seems to be that he has recognized a significant, steady shift of US voters.

Analyzing the Trend through Literature

Hillbilly Elegy by J.D. Vance:

Vance's memoir provides a personal narrative that resonates with many in the rural heartland, portraying the struggles of the white working class in Appalachia. His emphasis on personal responsibility, the breakdown of traditional family structures, and the perceived abandonment by the political establishment speak directly to the experiences and frustrations of this demographic.

Vance's story and subsequent political positioning could manifest a broader rejection of liberal policies, which many in these communities feel have failed to address their economic decline and cultural dislocation.

What's the Matter with Kansas? by Thomas Frank:

Frank's analysis of Kansas' shift from progressive roots to conservative dominance outlines the Republican Party's strategic embrace of cultural and social issues to win over working-class voters. This tactic, which focuses on issues like abortion, gun rights, and patriotism, has been effectively used to divert attention from economic policies that might not directly benefit these voters.

This strategy might continue to play a significant role in future elections, including 2024, as it taps into the cultural grievances and identity politics that energize a significant base of the Republican electorate.

The United States of Appalachia by Jeff Biggers 

and What You Are Getting Wrong About Appalachia by Elizabeth Catte: 

Both books challenge the monolithic portrayal of Appalachia and, by extension, rural America as uniformly conservative and culturally backwater. They highlight a history of progressive activism and diversity in these areas, suggesting that there is potential for political mobilization around different issues.

However, the dominant narrative often overlooks this complexity, which might be exploited in political campaigns that paint rural America with a broad conservative brush to consolidate and energize the conservative base.

Implications for the Post-2024 Political Landscape

The candidacy of J.D. Vance, if it materializes, could signal a solidification of the trend toward nationalism and cultural conservatism among rural and small-town voters. Here are several potential implications:

• 1. Deepening Urban-Rural Divide: The political strategies emphasizing cultural conservatism will further deepen the divide between urban and rural areas, polarizing the electorate along geographic and ideological lines.
• 2.   Shift in Democratic Strategy: Obama's 2008 victory and his left-of-center, global and urban, multicultural two-term presidency. Brought in his coattails the ascent of a more Far-Left new generation of Democratic leadership, such as the "Quad" and a focus on a more "campus-centric" type of identity politics, at odds with mainstream American values. Sarah Palin's VP candidacy (a less sophisticated version of  Vance}, the ascent of the Tea Party, and Donald Trump were early pushbacks to the Democratic shift from its traditional New Deal, pro-labor agenda to a more extreme Far Left position.
• 3.  Shift in Republican Strategy: The Republican Party may continue to shift towards a platform that is increasingly nationalist and populist, potentially moving away from traditional conservative economic policies to embrace more protectionist and anti-immigration stances.
• 4. Democratic Response: The Democratic Party might need to reassess its approach to engaging with rural voters, finding new ways to address their economic concerns while navigating the cultural issues that have historically pushed these voters towards the Republican camp.
• 5.  Evolving Voter Issues: Issues like immigration, gun rights, and nationalism will likely remain central in political discourse, possibly at the expense of broader economic policies, unless significant efforts are made to reframe these discussions.

In summary, J.D. Vance's potential VP candidacy could be both a symptom and a catalyst of ongoing shifts in American political dynamics, highlighting the enduring impact of cultural and economic dislocations experienced by many voters in America's heartland. The books discussed provide critical insights into these trends, offering a nuanced understanding of the forces shaping American politics today and into the future.