What Putin Wants: Geopolitics of Russia in Ukraine and their menace for EU and US

 

The territorial and geopolitical ambitions of Putin's Russia, particularly regarding Ukraine and the former Soviet satellite states in Eastern Europe, have been extensively analyzed in political science and historical literature. The core themes revolve around Russia's desire to reassert influence in its "near abroad," counter Western expansion, and maintain its status as a global power.

Historical Context and Geopolitical Ambitions

1. Historical Legacy and Nationalism: Many scholars point to the historical ties between Russia and Ukraine, including the perception of Ukraine as the "cradle of Russian civilization" (Kappeler, 2014). This historical connection is often invoked in Russian nationalist rhetoric to justify actions in Ukraine and other former Soviet territories (Kramer, 2015).

2. Geopolitical Strategy: The concept of the "Eurasianist" ideology, which promotes Russia as a distinct civilization and regional hegemon, has been influential in Russian foreign policy (Laruelle, 2008). This ideology underpins efforts to integrate former Soviet states into structures like the Eurasian Economic Union, aiming to create a buffer zone against NATO and EU expansion.

3. Security Concerns: Russia views NATO's eastward expansion as a direct threat to its security and regional influence. This perception has driven military interventions and the annexation of Crimea in 2014, as well as support for separatist movements in Eastern Ukraine (Mearsheimer, 2014).

Dangers for Finland and Poland

Finland and Poland, while not former Soviet states, are considered strategically significant due to their geographic proximity to Russia and historical experiences with Soviet aggression.

1. Finland: Finland's non-NATO status has traditionally been seen as a buffer that reduces the likelihood of Russian aggression. However, increasing military cooperation with NATO and participation in EU defense initiatives have raised concerns in Moscow (Kuusisto, 2016). The possibility of Russian military actions in the Baltic Sea region or hybrid warfare tactics, similar to those used in Ukraine, poses a significant risk.

2. Poland: Poland, a NATO member, has been at the forefront of advocating for a robust NATO response to Russian actions in Ukraine. The presence of NATO forces in Poland and the installation of missile defense systems have made it a potential target for Russian military and cyber operations (Bugajski, 2014).

Importance of Containing Russia's Aggression in Ukraine

Containing Russian aggression in Ukraine is critical for several reasons:

1. Deterrence of Further Expansion: A strong Western response, including economic sanctions and military support for Ukraine, serves to deter Russia from further aggressive actions in the region (Gressel, 2016). This containment is essential for the security of NATO's eastern members and the stability of Eastern Europe.

2. Protection of Liberal Democracy: Russia's actions in Ukraine and other countries, including disinformation campaigns and support for populist movements, aim to undermine liberal democratic institutions (Pomerantsev, 2014). Supporting Ukraine's sovereignty and democratic development is crucial for the broader struggle against authoritarianism and the protection of liberal democratic values in Europe and beyond.

3. NATO and EU Unity: The situation in Ukraine has tested the unity of NATO and the EU. A coordinated and firm response to Russian aggression strengthens these institutions and ensures their relevance in addressing contemporary security challenges (Bojicic-Dzelilovic, Ker-Lindsay, & Kostovicova, 2013).

Future of Liberal Democracy

The future of liberal democracy in Europe and beyond hinges on the ability of Western countries to effectively counter authoritarian influences from Russia and other actors. This involves not only military and economic measures but also efforts to strengthen democratic institutions, combat disinformation, and promote resilience among populations (Diamond, 2015).

References

• Bojicic-Dzelilovic, V., Ker-Lindsay, J., & Kostovicova, D. (2013). Civil Society and Transitions in the Western Balkans. Palgrave Macmillan.
• Bugajski, J. (2014). Conflict Zones: North Caucasus and Western Balkans Compared. Routledge.
• Diamond, L. (2015). Facing Up to the Democratic Recession. Journal of Democracy, 26(1), 141-155.
• Gressel, G. (2016). Russia's Quiet Military Revolution, and What it Means for Europe. European Council on Foreign Relations.
• Kappeler, A. (2014). The Russian Empire: A Multi-Ethnic History. Routledge.
• Kramer, M. (2015). The Geopolitics of Security in the Black Sea Region. In The Crisis in Ukraine. Harvard Ukrainian Research Institute.
• Kuusisto, R. (2016). Finland and NATO: From Neutrality to Robust Partnership. In NATO's Many Faces. Springer.
• Laruelle, M. (2008). Russian Eurasianism: An Ideology of Empire. Johns Hopkins University Press.
• Mearsheimer, J. J. (2014). Why the Ukraine Crisis Is the West's Fault. Foreign Affairs, 93(5), 77-89.
• Pomerantsev, P. (2014). Nothing Is True and Everything Is Possible: The Surreal Heart of the New Russia. PublicAffairs.