Sunday, August 2, 2020

Post -Pandemics II: A Long View Approach (2)


The Munk Dialogues and Debates produced a series of high-interest interviews to explore Post-Covid scenarios.  Financier Mohamed Al-Erian,  foreign affairs expert Fareed Zakaria, "big picture" writer Malcolm Gladwell, economic historian Niall Ferguson, China experts Victor Gao, David Li, and Henry Kissinger produced a variety of valuable insights from different angles.

Mohamed Al-Erian emphasized the long-lasting effect of the pandemic over the global economic system and the re-globalization or reconfiguration of global value chains as a result of the pandemic experience. In Al-Erian's view, the re-globalization will involve nearshoring to reliable partners with higher health and communication standards and reciprocal trust.


Malcolm Gladwell points to a different but critical angle: the key importance of looking to the weakest link in the world and local societies and economies instead of focusing on the "competitive advantages". The weakest links such as healthcare capacity and prevention, poverty, and welfare networks are likely to stay front and center.


Ian Bremmer added a critical insight regarding the relocation of global value chains: "just-in-case" criteria will not be sustainable. Stronger links based on mutual agreements and reliable partnerships will have priority over mere cost-cutting or universal coverage plans.


Fareed Zakaria pointed out the rise of China as a global factor but also with increased pressure and challenges to meet health and trade requirements


Niall Ferguson, Henry Kissinger, Victor Gao, and David Li debated the role of China, with the Chinese defending the strong points and the Brit and American pointing to China's weaknesses.  





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